Gold hovers near fresh record, silver at highest since 2012. Why? Uncertainty

Gold pared gains after reaching a fresh record high amid tensions in the Middle East and the approaching US presidential election.
Bullion rose as much as 0.7% before retreating as some investors booked profits after the precious metal’s four-day winning streak. It breached the $2,700-an-ounce threshold last week, with analysts attributing gains to haven demand amid uncertainty around the outcome of the US election and ongoing worries over the Middle East. Israel has been discussing its attack on Iran after a Hezbollah drone exploded near Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s private home at the weekend.
Silver advanced as much as 1.7% on Monday to the highest since 2012 before surrendering those gains.
Gold has hit successive all-time highs in recent months and is up by more than 30% this year. Along with haven demand and US political uncertainty, the rally has been fueled by robust central-bank buying and expectations of US interest-rate cuts. Lower rates are often seen as bullish for non-interest bearing gold.
“The simple bottom line is that gold thrives on uncertainty,” said Rhona O’Connell, head of market analysis for EMEA and Asia at StoneX. “The lack of clarity over the medium-term direction of US foreign policy is adding to nervousness.”
Meanwhile, money managers have increased net-long positions in gold, while investors have added to exchange-traded fund holdings in recent sessions. SPDR Gold Shares, the world’s largest bullion-backed ETF, registered the biggest weekly inflow since March. Gold futures may rise to average $3,000 in the fourth quarter of 2025, Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar said in a note.
Spot gold was little change at $2,721.31 an ounce at 4:42 p.m. in London. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index and US 10-year Treasury yield gained. Palladium and platinum fell.